Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.404021 0.462469 0.525875 0.599703 0.683233 0.774740 0.882517
2025-08-03 0.331921 0.412415 0.506532 0.624432 0.767893 0.936503 1.149402
2025-08-10 0.259553 0.348170 0.459253 0.608111 0.801695 1.044180 1.370141
2025-08-17 0.201216 0.290408 0.409859 0.580444 0.816529 1.130276 1.577115
2025-08-24 0.163354 0.252638 0.379883 0.572721 0.855449 1.252201 1.847909
2025-08-31 0.133423 0.220436 0.351999 0.562889 0.889275 1.371127 2.130908
2025-09-07 0.115028 0.202143 0.341309 0.576269 0.958436 1.549384 2.523553
2025-09-14 0.093594 0.174830 0.311829 0.555185 0.970622 1.642452 2.798389
2025-09-21 0.078731 0.155817 0.292624 0.547493 1.002641 1.769886 3.143162
2025-09-28 0.066160 0.138463 0.273248 0.536072 1.026011 1.885046 3.480986
2025-10-05 0.059483 0.131024 0.270500 0.553965 1.103257 2.101003 4.017482
2025-10-12 0.051823 0.120104 0.259258 0.553837 1.146761 2.261545 4.473371
2025-10-19 0.046099 0.112457 0.253855 0.565639 1.217367 2.485302 5.082800
2025-10-26 0.041374 0.106094 0.250085 0.580331 1.296169 2.735084 5.774138
2025-11-02 0.034627 0.093598 0.230894 0.559028 1.297709 2.833749 6.181872
2025-11-09 0.028477 0.081169 0.209564 0.529307 1.276664 2.883748 6.497327
2025-11-16 0.024487 0.073365 0.197656 0.519270 1.297664 3.024155 7.018922
2025-11-23 0.021057 0.066269 0.186153 0.508210 1.314578 3.157653 7.541788
2025-11-30 0.019104 0.062893 0.183525 0.518814 1.384496 3.417461 8.375057
2025-12-07 0.016162 0.055874 0.169892 0.498644 1.375886 3.496539 8.806933
2025-12-14 0.014110 0.051092 0.161482 0.490926 1.397506 3.648976 9.427462
2025-12-21 0.012246 0.046436 0.152519 0.480078 1.409251 3.778761 10.008634
2025-12-28 0.011401 0.045007 0.152845 0.495798 1.494467 4.099916 11.093384